Analysis of Regional Resilience Components Against Seismic Hazards; Case Study: Tehran Province

One of the needs of cities and regions to face natural or man-made hazards is how to manage the crisis using the concept of resilience, which is known as a relatively new concept in urban and regional studies. Since cities become resilient when they are located in resilient areas, the concept of resilience should be expanded at the regional level and include a wider territory such as the region with multiple dimensions and components. Today, few studies have been conducted regarding regional resilience against natural hazards, so the current research tries to investigate this concept at the regional level. One of the problems that Tehran province is facing is earthquake. Considering the frequency and historical records of fault activity, Tehran province will face a huge earthquake in the future. The aim of the current research is to analyze the components of regional resilience against seismic hazards (case study: Tehran province). Since in order to achieve the features of resilient areas against seismic hazards, it is necessary to collect comprehensive indicators, so the indicators are developed by considering comprehensive models in some theoretical and experimental studies in the form of a consolidated model (BRIC, DROP, CDRI, MDFR, UNISDR, PEOPLES, RIM) were extracted. In this research, descriptive-analytical methods are used to explain and analyze resilience. The method of data collection is based on the fact that the type of indicators are placed in two objective (quantitative) and subjective (qualitative) groups, the method of documentary and statistical studies and the field method (using electronic questionnaire tools). The statistical population is the residents of Tehran province, and the sample size is estimated to be 384 people in the entire province using Cochran's formula, and it is also estimated differently in each city. In the following, to reduce the indicators and find the components, the exploratory factor analysis method and SPSS software were used, and the indicators were reduced to 23 components. Then, in order to explain the regional resilience in the whole Tehran province, the composite index was examined through the total score of the objective (social, economic, infrastructure, community and environmental resilience) and mental (institutional) dimensions and its spatial distribution in ArcGIS software. Finally, the relationship and impact of each of the components on the regional resilience of Tehran province was done through linear regression analysis (significance test with  equal to 0.54) for mental components in SPSS software and through the calculation of average factor scores for objective components. The results indicate that half of Tehran province, including the cities of Tehran, Ray, Shahryar, Firouzkoh, Qods, Qarchak, Mallard and Varamin, have little resilience, and in case of an earthquake in each of them, especially Tehran, which contains the capital city, it will have little resilience. They will show that it has consequences and some components, such as the components of institutional preparation and performance, awareness and social understanding, have a significant relationship with regional resilience.