Analysis of regional resilience components against seismic hazards; Case study: Tehran province

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Professor, School of Urban Planning, College of Fine Arts, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

2 M.A. in Regional Panning, School of Urban Planning, College of Fine Arts, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

One of the needs of cities and regions in facing natural or man-made hazards is effective management of the crisis using the concept of resilience, which is a relatively new concept in urban and regional studies. Since cities become resilient when they are located in resilient areas, the concept of resilience should be expanded to the regional level and include a wider territory such as the region with multiple dimensions and components. Currently, few studies have been conducted regarding regional resilience against natural hazards, so the current research aims to investigate this concept at the regional level. One of the problems that Tehran province is facing is the risk of earthquakes. Considering the frequency and historical records of fault activity, Tehran province is expected to face a major earthquake in the future. The aim of the current research is to analyze the components of regional resilience against seismic hazards using Tehran province as a case study. In order to identify the features of resilient areas against seismic hazards, it is necessary to collect comprehensive indicators. Thus, the indicators are developed by considering comprehensive models in some theoretical and experimental studies in the form of a consolidated model (BRIC, DROP, CDRI, MDFR, UNISDR, PEOPLES, RIM). In this research, descriptive-analytical methods are used to explain and analyze resilience. The method of data collection is based on categorizing the indicators in two groups: objective (quantitative) and subjective (qualitative), using documentary and statistical studies as well as the field method (using electronic questionnaire tools). The statistical population is the residents of Tehran province, and the sample size is estimated to be 384 people in the entire province using Cochran's formula, and it is also estimated differently in each city. Subsequently, to reduce the indicators and find the components, the exploratory factor analysis method and SPSS software were used, and the indicators were reduced to 23 components. To explain regional resilience across Tehran province, the composite index was examined through the total score of the objective (social, economic, infrastructure, community and environmental resilience) and mental (institutional) dimensions and its spatial distribution in ArcGIS software. Finally, the relationship and impact of each of the components on the regional resilience of Tehran province was assessed through linear regression analysis (significance test with R^2 equal to 0.54) for mental components in SPSS software and through the calculation of average factor scores for objective components. The results indicate that half of Tehran province, including the cities of Tehran, Ray, Shahryar, Firouzkoh, Qods, Qarchak, Mallard and Varamin, have low resilience. In the event of an earthquake, especially in Tehran, the capital city, these areas are expected to demonstrate limited resilience, which lead to significant consequences. The findings also show that some components, such as the components of institutional preparation and performance, awareness and social understanding, have a significant relationship with regional resilience.

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References

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Journal of Architecture and Urban Planning
Volume 17, Issue 44
September 2024
Pages 45-74

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