Analysis of factors influencing urban nightlife using cross-impact analysis method; Case study of district 8 of Shiraz

From past to present, the realization of nightlife has always faced a series of challenges, primarily revolving around issues of order and disorder, safety and insecurity. These challenges have made the establishment and flourishing of nightlife a complex task. This complexity is further exacerbated by future uncertainties, including the unpredictability of urban development and various environmental factors. The lack of a forward-looking perspective amplifies these challenges, making the planning and realization of nightlife even more difficult. Additionally, some studies have highlighted concerns regarding the challenges associated with nightlife, indicating that existing policies and regulations in many cities and countries are insufficient for the formation and development of nightlife. These policies often fail to provide the necessary infrastructure to address these challenges adequately. Moreover, no comprehensive study has yet covered all aspects of the feasibility of nightlife. Most studies have only identified the factors influencing nightlife and their impact. No research has delved into the nature of these factors and their role remains unclear. There is also a lack of studies focusing on the interrelationships between these factors. Furthermore, most research has concentrated on the current situation, analyzing only the existing indicators. Therefore, the primary objective of this study is to identify and analyze the most significant factors influencing the feasibility of nightlife in Shiraz. This involves examining the extent and manner of these factors' impact on each other and on the future state of District 8 in Shiraz, utilizing the cross-impact analysis method. This study employs a cross-impact analysis method and involves a purposive sample of 15 urban planning experts. Through a comprehensive review of theoretical frameworks, 16 indicators were identified and categorized into four main dimensions: urban laws and regulations, land use diversity, access and public transportation, and urban facilities and infrastructure. The method utilized in this research is cross-impact analysis using the MICMAC software. A purposive sampling technique was used to select 15 urban planning experts, whose insights and expertise significantly contributed to shaping the study. Based on theoretical studies, 16 indicators were identified and classified using MICMAC software into four distinct categories: influencing, influenced, dual, and independent. This categorization is crucial for understanding the dynamics of each indicator and their roles in the realization of nightlife. The results of this study indicate that influencing indicators include advanced CCTV systems, 24-hour public transportation systems, prohibition and fines, and attention to the distance from public spaces; influenced indicators include modern lighting and police surveillance and control; independent indicators include access to parking and public restrooms; and dual indicators encompass night-time electricity supply, licensing laws, land use diversity, the revitalization of dilapidated buildings, night-time traffic control regulations, and urban furniture. Applying these findings can enhance nighttime activities and increase citizen presence, leading to a more vibrant nightlife. This improvement in safety and infrastructure will elevate residents' quality of life. Additionally, the region will become more attractive to investors and tourists, creating new economic and tourism opportunities. Overall, these changes can transform the area into a dynamic urban space.